How each signal works
1
Line moves Opened Signals pill
How far the sportsbook's line has moved since it opened.
How it works
- We compare DraftKings' opening spread, total and moneyline with its line now (from ESPN).
- Pre-game only: once a game starts, it's the opener against the closing line, never the live line.
- Line moved in the Signals pill shows only the games that moved, biggest move first. A point of spread or total counts as 1; 3 points of win chance count as 1, so a moneyline-only sport like hockey ranks fairly.
Example
Opened BUF −1.5 → −3 · O/U 47.5 → 46
The Bills went from 1.5- to 3-point favorites: money came in on Buffalo. The total dropped 1.5: money came in on the Under.
Use it: a line that crossed a key number (3 or 7 in football) is a big move. If you liked the Bills at −1.5, the value is mostly gone at −3.
2
Movement & Steam Exchanges
Where each prediction-market exchange has moved since the first prices we saw, and when they move together.
How it works
- Every 5 minutes we read Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX, and 4cx, and keep each one's first prices for the game.
- Each exchange's two prices have its margin taken out, so you see a clean win chance.
- Steam shows when 2 or more exchanges move 3+ points toward the same side and none moves that far the other way. Exchanges publish no bet counts, so moving together is the closest thing they show to sharp money.
Example
Movement Polymarket Bills 52% → 57.9% · ProphetX Bills 53.2% → 58.3% Steam: Bills
Two exchanges moved 5+ points toward Buffalo, and none went the other way.
Use it: steam usually means the price is about to get worse. Every steam signal is logged at kickoff and graded on the Sharp $ Record page, so you can see whether it wins before you trust it. Tap the chart icon on the card to see the whole move.
3
Fair price & +EV Exchanges
The market's own fair price for the game, and any exchange paying more than it.
How it works
- For each exchange, take its two prices on a bet and remove its margin (its bid-ask spread and fee) with the power method.
- Average across the exchanges. DraftKings, a sportsbook, is left out. That's the Fair line.
- A green +EV flag shows when one exchange's best price beats the other exchanges' fair price by 1% to 10%. A bigger gap is almost always a stale or mismatched price, so it's left out. +EV flags are available on Premium.
Example
Fair Bills −139 · Dolphins +139 +4.6% EV: Dolphins ML +150
Kalshi, Polymarket, and ProphetX price the Dolphins fair at about +139, but Novig pays +150. Each $100 there is worth about $4.60 on average.
Use it: a +EV flag usually means one exchange hasn't caught up, and it closes fast. To check any price yourself, use the free no-vig calculator.
4
Public & sharp money Bets / Money
Each side's share of DraftKings' bets (tickets) and of its money (handle).
How it works
- Refreshed every 10 minutes and shown in the last hour before kickoff, when the bets are in. It freezes at kickoff.
- Public: a side with 70%+ of the bets. Casual bettors are piling on, and books often shade that price.
- Sharp $: a side whose share of the money is 15+ points above its share of the bets. Fewer, bigger bets, the way bigger and sharper bettors bet.
- Too few bets: a side with no bets or no money (usually a line that just moved). It's ignored.
Example
Total · Under 36% of bets / 62% of money Sharp $: Under Total
Only about a third of the tickets are on the Under, but they carry most of the money: 26 points more money than bets.
Use it: sharp money against a public side is the classic contrarian setup. Tap the chart icon to see how the bets and money changed through the day.
4
Reverse line move Bets / Money
The line moving against the side most people are betting.
How it works
- 60%+ of the bets are on one side, yet the spread or total moved the way money on the other side moves it.
- Pre-game opener against the current line, for spreads and totals.
- ✓ exchanges on the chip: the exchanges' own spread or total moved the same way since their first prices. ✗ exchanges: they moved the other way.
Example
Bills −3 → −2.5 with 68% of bets on the Bills Reverse move: Dolphins
Most tickets are on Buffalo, yet the book made Buffalo cheaper. It's moving to attract the Bills, so the bigger money is likely on Miami.
Use it: one of the best-known sharp signals. Search rlm on the dashboard to see every game with one.
5
Consensus & fade Signals pill
What the analysts you follow agree on, and who's worth betting against.
How it works
- 🔥 Consensus: 3 or more of your sources lean the same way, and at least twice as many lean that way as the other. An analyst's spread and moneyline on one team count once.
- 🧊 Fade: an analyst with 25+ graded picks, a win rate of 45% or less, and −5 units or worse.
- Consensus and Fade in the Signals pill filter the board to those games.
Example
🔥 Bills · 3 of your sources agree (1 the other way)
🧊 Fade ColdCapper → Dolphins
ColdCapper took the Bills. Their record says to look at the other side.
Use it: consensus is strongest when it agrees with steam or sharp money, and weakest when it just follows the public.
6
Your exposure Your wagers
What's riding on each side of a game across every exchange, and what you net whichever side wins.
How it works
- Your wagers from 4cx, Polymarket, Kalshi, and ProphetX are added up per side. It shows once you have two or more on a game.
- Holding both sides, each at one line: what you net if each side wins (one side's winnings less what's lost on the other).
- Full-game spreads, totals and moneylines.
Example
$115 on Bills −2.5 (−115), wins $100 · $55 on Dolphins +2.5 (−110), wins $50
Bills −2.5 → +$45.00 · Dolphins +2.5 → −$65.00
Bills cover: +$100 − $55. Dolphins cover: +$50 − $115.
Use it: to get out of a position, sell it on the exchange where you hold it.
7
Outbid & Match Your offers
When someone posts a better price than your resting offer.
How it works
- Your open offers on 4cx and orders on Polymarket are checked against the best price on the market.
- When yours isn't the best anymore, the card shows it, and a desktop alert can tell you.
- ⚡ Match opens 4cx's own Edit Order with the best price filled in. You confirm it there: we never place or change an order.
Example
⚠ Outbid. Best offer: Over 49.5 −108
Your offer at −110 won't be taken while someone offers −108.
8
Middles Exchanges
Two bets on different lines that can both win.
How it works
- We compare every exchange's spread and total, at the card's line and at each exchange's nearby lines.
- When one side's line at one place and the other side's at another leave a gap, a result in that gap wins both bets.
- The card shows the two bets, where both win, and what $100 split between them does: a small loss if it misses, a big win if it hits. Only middles that cost $10 or less per $100 on a miss are shown.
Example
Middle Bills −2.5 −110 Polymarket + Dolphins +3.5 −118 Novig Both win on Bills by 3
$49.18 on the Bills and $50.82 on the Dolphins: −$6.11 if the game misses 3, +$87.78 if the Bills win by exactly 3.
Use it: a middle pays off when its gap lands often enough to cover the small losses. Check how often games land on that number with the half-point calculator, and grab both bets fast: lines move.
9
Closing line value Records
The best test of whether you, or an analyst, have a real edge.
How it works
- We keep each game's last exchange prices before kickoff and take the fair price from them, the same way as the Fair line.
- Each graded pick and wager gets its CLV: what the price taken was worth at that fair price.
- Records shows it under every pick, as Beat the close for each analyst, and for your wagers as a CLV tile, your win rate beside the one the close expected, and a breakdown by exchange, sport, and bet.
Example
Took Dolphins +125 · CLV +3.5% · fair 46%
At kickoff the exchanges priced the Dolphins at 46%. At +125 that's worth 2.25 × 0.46 = 1.035: +3.5% per bet, win or lose.
Use it: results swing for months, but CLV shows up within weeks. An analyst who keeps beating the close is worth following even through a losing stretch.